M&A deals die with executive turnover: OpenAI's TBPN acquisition almost didn't survive

The Gist

• OpenAI's TBPN deal nearly collapsed when 4 execs left during 3-month closing
• SaaStr reveals 2 failed acquisitions when buyers themselves got acquired mid-process
• Noah Waisberg: Deals die when champions leave, not when strategy changes
• Management churn at tech companies has accelerated deal mortality rates

• Executive turnover can kill M&A deals even if the target company remains unchanged, as seen in OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN.
• Deals often fail not because of rejection but due to the departure or shifting priorities of the championing executive.
• At large tech companies, the likelihood of an executive remaining in the same role with the same priorities after 12 months is less than 20%.
• Smaller M&A deals ('small chip' deals) are particularly vulnerable to champion risk, as they lack institutional commitment.
• Acquisition windows are often fleeting; 'not now' in M&A typically means 'not ever.'
• Founders should act quickly on attractive acquisition offers, as the champion's circumstances may change before the deal closes.

• Evaluate the stability and tenure of the executive championing your acquisition to gauge deal viability.
• Prioritize speed in closing deals when an offer is attractive, as the champion's role or priorities may change.
• Treat 'not now' responses in M&A as likely permanent rejections and adjust your strategy accordingly.
• Focus on building relationships with multiple decision-makers to mitigate champion risk in M&A discussions.

• 20% (Likelihood of an executive remaining in the same role with the same priorities after 12 months at large tech companies.)
• $50-200 million (Typical range for 'small chip' deals that executives can pursue without heavy scrutiny.)