AI's 1997 moment: Hype meets reality for revenue teams

May 31, 2026 · Lenny's Podcast
🎧 PodShort 80 min squeezed to 2 AI SprinklerAS AI / ML
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Benedict Evans
Independent Analyst at Benedict Evans (previously A16Z)
Lenny's Podcast
80 min squeezed to 2
Full episode from Lenny's Podcast
Quotable Moments

My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile.

Benedict EvansIndependent Analyst
00:00

Every time we have a new technology, it automates away a bunch of jobs and then that automation unlocks a bunch of new jobs. And you don't know the new job because it doesn't exist yet.

Benedict EvansIndependent Analyst
00:09
Key Insights
  • Historically, new technologies automate existing jobs but consistently create new ones that often improve overall prosperity, despite transitional challenges.
  • AI's current stage is analogous to the internet in 1997; it's highly exciting, but many applications are still nascent, and its full operational impact remains unclear.
  • AI is driving an unexpected surge in demand for professional services and consulting, as companies require help integrating and automating complex business processes.
  • The value generated by AI models may not accrue entirely to the model providers; much of the value is likely to be captured further up the application stack, similar to historical shifts in industries like telecom.
  • AI adoption is occurring more rapidly than previous technologies because foundational infrastructure like the internet and smartphones is already broadly available.
  • Discussions surrounding AGI and superintelligence often involve a continuous redefinition of what these terms mean, as the capabilities of AI evolve, making 'AI' a moving target that refers to whatever machines cannot yet do.
  • Companies that are considered advanced AI labs are paradoxically increasing their human headcount, suggesting that even highly automated fields still require significant human input, contrary to common fears of mass job displacement.
Metrics Mentioned
  • Global Mobile Industry has revenue of about a trillion dollars a year (Annual revenue for the global mobile industry.)
  • spends about 200 billion dollars a year on CapEx (Annual capital expenditure in the global mobile industry.)
  • Total Telecoms is about 300 [billion dollars] (Total annual capital expenditure for the telecommunications industry.)
  • mobile is about 200 [billion dollars] (Mobile sector's contribution to total annual telecom capital expenditure.)
  • 1500 to 2000 times what it was in 2010 globally (Growth in mobile data consumption globally since 2010.)
  • 0.017% of US water consumption (Estimated US data center water consumption relative to total US water consumption.)

RevBots.ai View:

  • AI Sprinkler stage teams will face consulting costs before seeing ROI.
  • ARM-stage orgs should focus on application-layer value capture, not model wars.
  • Tab Hoppers risk falling behind by dismissing AI as hype.
  • SaaS Hoarders must audit tools for AI integration readiness.
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